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US December manufacturing PMI final value outlook: short-term recovery uncertainty remains

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Update time : 2019-12-27 21:40:04
Sina Finance December 26 news, the US December Markit manufacturing PMI final value will be announced on January 2, 2020, with an initial value of 52.5. The market currently expects the US economy to maintain modest growth at the end of the year, but there are still data indicating that the US manufacturing industry is still weak.

PMI outperforms Europe and Japan

The US Markit manufacturing PMI in December was 52.5, with an expected value of 52.6 and a previous value of 52.6. IHS Markit economist Williamson said that the data is in line with the trend of economic growth of about 1.5% and outperforms the euro (1.1156, 0.0060, 0.54%) and other large economies such as Japan, indicating that the US economy will remain at the end Moderate growth and a positive momentum of pick-up in 2020.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York ’s December survey of overall corporate conditions jumped 10.4 points to a five-month high of 29.8, and the new orders outlook indicator rose 11.4 points to 35.6, the strongest since February.

In the 2020 Outlook report, Citibank believes that the impact of 2020's emergencies on the manufacturing industry will be reduced, and the manufacturing industry will not experience a sharp recession, but the possibility of a significant strengthening is also low. It is expected that the US manufacturing industry will recover moderately next year.

Manufacturing activity shrinks, PMI may fluctuate at low levels in the short term

Eder Securities Futures Research said that in December Markit's manufacturing PMI showed that the outlook for the US manufacturing industry was still weak, and the ISM manufacturing PMI was also below the level of prosperity and dryness for four consecutive months. In the December interest rate resolution, the Fed stated that manufacturing has become an important factor dragging down the US economy. Although the market's risk appetite has increased, gold has still moved out of the range.

Shanghai Shenyin & Wanguo Securities said that although the global manufacturing boom has rebounded since the fourth quarter, the short-term recovery uncertainty of the US's own manufacturing PMI is still uncertain. The current ISM and Markit caliber differentiation trends are closer to 15 years. Experience shows that PMI may fluctuate at a low level in the short term.

Analysts at the International Derivatives Think Tank said that the US Richmond Fed manufacturing index recorded -5 in December, which was far less than the previous value of -1 and the expected value of 1. Except for the employment sub-index, which rose slightly, the rest of the sub-indexes fell , Indicating that the US manufacturing industry is still weak. The index mainly reflects the manufacturing activity in the central region of the US Atlantic and can be used to predict the state of manufacturing in the United States. An index below zero indicates that the region's manufacturing activity has contracted. After the data was released, the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose sharply, and the stock index fell sharply.

In addition, the United States Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index in December was 0.3, far below the expected value of 8 and the previous value of 10.4, refreshing the low level since January this year.